Other Installments in the 2024 Midseason Top 50:
Now, the top 50 begins. I talked in the introductory post about methodology a bit, so I’m not going to spend a bunch of time belaboring it further here. We’re working from 50-1 over the next five days, and there will be analysis of overall stuff to follow after that.
I do want to make a quick note about the tone of the below writeups (all 50, not just the upcoming ten). Some probably sound a bit more positive, or spend a higher percentage of their time on positives, than others, and I’d guess that doesn’t correlate all that strongly with where on the list the player is, so that might seem confusing. I think what that tone correlates to, if anything, is what direction that player is moving–if a guy has moved down the list from, say, fifth to twentieth, then real estate has to be allocated for explaining that drop, much as the inverse is true for a player rising from 40th to 20th. But it’s not really a tidy thing like that. I’m just trying to explain the most relevant pieces of the analytical puzzle–particularly in comparison to typical publicly-available info–to me about each player, and that just seems to be the way it tends to shake out.
As I did last year, to give some more context around where each player came from and where they are, I’ve noted how the A’s acquired each player and which affiliate they’re currently assigned to (these will be current as of the morning each group of 10 is published, not backdated to the first post on June 9), as well as where I ranked each player on the last two midseason Top 50s. An "N/A" when referencing a previous ranking doesn't necessarily mean the player wasn't in the A's organization at the time I did the ranking (though it often does, like with 2023 draftees); in some cases, it means that I hadn't watched video of the player yet and thus didn't consider him, like how 2023 international signees are not eligible for this year's midseason list.
Let’s begin!
50.) Caeden Trenkle, OF
How Acquired: Drafted (Round 9, 2022)
Current Team: Midland
2022 Midseason Rank: N/A
2023 Midseason Rank: 45
Trenkle hasn’t had the superficial statistical excellence in Midland over the last year-ish that he had in Lansing early in 2023, but his projection remains pretty much the same as a year ago: he’s likely a lefty-hitting utility outfielder.
Trenkle does a little bit of everything. He’s a capable center fielder with good instincts (he hasn’t played much center this year, but that’s in deference to the great gloves of Denzel Clarke and Junior Pérez), he’s a solid-average baserunner, he takes his walks, swings hard enough to clear the fence every now and again, and shows the bat control to do a little small-ball that aids his batting average.
Trenkle has a lot of strong skills, though he doesn’t really have any plus tools among the traditional five. His biggest weakness is that he has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game for his otherwise table-setting skillset; he swings through a fair number of hittable pitches in the zone and tends to pull off the ball at times. It’s possible he could get more consistent in that area with time; if he could make inroads there, he’d be a sort of lefty-hitting outfield-only answer to Max Schuemann. Trenkle’s overall statline this year isn’t pretty, but he hasn’t even turned 23 yet and has really come on over the last month. It’s likely that he’s an effective Triple-A player by the beginning of 2026, when he’ll still be only 24. The question will be how he can navigate getting over the MLB/AAA borderline.
49.) Ríchard Fernández, RHSP
How Acquired: International amateur free agent (2022, Dominican Republic)
Current Team: ACL A’s (7-day IL)
2022 Midseason Rank: N/A
2023 Midseason Rank: Unranked
Fernández turns 22 in September and hasn’t thrown a pitch in US pro ball yet, so including him on the org top 50 might seem presumptuous. But Fernández was dominant in the Dominican last year, showing some of the best on-mound athleticism in the system, 90-94 mph velocity with carry, and three promising offspeed pitches, and Eric Longenhagen reported in his own A’s prospect list that the righty had a further velo spike into the mid-90s this spring. Unfortunately, he got hurt shortly after and is currently on the IL with an undisclosed injury. Discouraging as that is, his athleticism and pitch shapes were enough to get Fernández on the radar already, and the increased velocity definitely makes him a pitcher to watch when he returns. He’ll need to move quickly if he’s going to stay a starter, but Fernández has intriguing upside in any role.
48.) Shane McGuire, C
How Acquired: Drafted (Round 9, 2021)
Current Team: Midland
2022 Midseason Rank: 48
2023 Midseason Rank: Unranked (HM, noted in the writeup he was the last cut from the Top 50)
McGuire’s hovered in the 40-60 range on my rankings from basically the moment he got settled in in full-season ball in 2022. The scouting report on him really hasn’t changed much in that time: he’s a lefty-hitting catcher who plays capable defense, has maybe the best eye in the system, hits a lot of singles with a short, direct swing, and is strong enough to hint at near-average power potential but doesn’t really get to it much in games because he doesn't get his lower body involved in his swing very much.
McGuire is repeating Midland, and he’s getting on base well and showing a bit more extra-base thump than he did in 2023. He should be effective in Las Vegas whenever the A’s move him there. The obvious comp for McGuire has long been Josh Thole, hopefully with a bit more punch. Thole played nearly 500 career games, so having that be a likely outcome for a prospect ranked here is a good thing, even though that’s not the most exciting comp one could hear.
47.) Will Johnston, LHSP
How Acquired: Drafted (Round 13, 2023)
Current Team: Lansing
2022 Midseason Rank: N/A
2023 Midseason Rank: N/A
I’ve written in my typically excessive length about Johnston this year, so I’ll keep this relatively brief. Since I wrote that article a few weeks ago, Johnston’s early-season dominance has backed up some–he struck out at least five batters in all six of his outings before I wrote it and hasn’t reached that threshold in any of his five appearances since. Still, his command has held up better than I expected in Lansing, and he hasn’t walked more than two batters in an appearance there yet. He seems to be toying more with the shape of his breaking ball recently, lengthening it out into more of an upper-70s curve at times while still mixing in the typical 80-82 mph sliders. His divebombing changeup still seems like his best pitch visually but he doesn’t use it as much as the breaking stuff, and it’ll be interesting to track his pitch usages as his career advances.
Overall, Johnston’s outlier vertical arm slot and the extreme vertical action on his pitches give him the possibility to punch above his weight class from a velocity standpoint, since he only averages around 91 mph with his fastball. I mentioned the idea of a lefthanded Zach Jackson as a reasonable point of comparison for Johnston’s long-term skillset in the longform analysis, and I still think that’s the most likely (reasonably successful) endpoint of Johnston’s development. He is throwing strikes so far despite the oddity of his delivery, though, and he has the three–maybe now four?–pitch arsenal to keep starting for the time being.
Some other lists have pushed Johnston a tier higher than this; I see how he can get there, but I’m in a bit more of a wait-and-see mode in evaluating him. Late-round deception guys who sit 91 and carve up A-ball are not typically the most stably-progressing minor league performers. But Johnston’s done all you could possibly ask of a 13th-round selection in his first full pro season, and the uniqueness of his delivery and movement profile gives him plenty of intriguing right-tail outcomes, particularly if he continues to repeat his delivery as well as he has in Lansing.
46.) Manuel Pérez, RHSP
How Acquired: International amateur free agent (2022, Dominican Republic)
Current Team: ACL A’s
2022 Midseason Rank: N/A
2023 Midseason Rank: 48
Pérez has had a rough introduction to US ball this year, but he’s just 18, has big stuff, and performed well in the DSL for two years before his sixteen rough innings in Arizona to date. Most of his rough statline is concentrated in a couple of particularly poor outings, and though a 9.56 ERA is bad, it’s not accompanied by any extreme indicators.
Pérez can get his carrying fastball up to 96 mph, and he has three offspeed pitches that show bat-missing ability, headlined by a strong slider with quality tilt and bite. His change and curve haven’t been as consistent as the slider but both flash nicely, particularly the changeup. To have those ingredients and some on-mound savvy at this young an age is quite special, a skillset the A’s have almost never had in an 18-year-old international pitcher.
What holds Pérez back from being considered one of the system’s best pitching prospects is his athleticism. Though his delivery is fairly explosive, his lower half is very stiff, giving him mediocre extension to the plate and impacting the consistency of his rotation down the mound. That’s seemed to impact his functional command this season as he’s faced more advanced hitters who don’t chase the slider as much, and could well pose challenges for Pérez as he progresses, particularly in a starting role.
Still, Pérez’s stuff is very good, he seems to have some feel for the craft of pitching, and he’s got a lot of time to iron out his mechanics, as recent outings of the next pitcher down on this list certainly illustrate neatly. He’s got a lot of work in front of him, but there’s already a lot in place here that sets Pérez up to succeed. Anything that gets him additional mechanical fluidity could lead to a big breakout.
45.) Germán Ortíz, OF/INF
How Acquired: International amateur free agent (2021, Dominican Republic)
Current Team: ACL A’s
2022 Midseason Rank: N/A
2023 Midseason Rank: Unranked (HM)
Ortíz signed in 2021 for just $50,000 out of the Dominican Republic and immediately turned some heads by hanging in in the DSL as a 16-year-old in his first pro summer. Three years later, he’s still in Rookie ball (now the US version), but he’s dominating there, hitting .322/.438/.437. And Ortíz is still a teenager.
Ortíz has always hit, and his feel for barreling the baseball has stood out consistently as his biggest skill throughout his career. Around that main skill, however, his profile has changed. When he signed, Ortíz was a smallish switch-hitting middle infield prospect who struggled to put a charge into the ball. He played all over the infield and had a bit more of a slashing approach as a hitter, struggling to amass extra-base hits but finding his way on base consistently.
Now, Ortíz only hits lefty and is starting to look a lot like a lefty-swinging version of Brennan Milone, albeit one far earlier in his development. Ortíz didn’t hit his first pro homer until this season (he now has two!), but he made a lot more hard contact in his 2023 US debut than his extra-base hit total (6 in 178 PA, all doubles) implied. In 2024, Ortíz is starting to backspin the ball more and see that hard contact translate into the beginnings of real slugging, and he still has plenty of time to develop that further, as well as further room to fill out his frame. Like Milone, he adopts a very unusual setup in the box, but Ortíz is a fierce, athletic rotator with solid pitch recognition, so he’s making the setup–in his case, he leans in way forward toward the plate as the pitcher winds up–work for now.
Also like Milone, Ortíz is in search of a defensive home even though he’s hardly a big lumbering giant out there. After he was primarily a 2B/3B in past seasons with mixed results, Ortíz has been moved primarily to left field this season, and he’s early in developing a consistent feel there. He also has amassed some experience at first base. If those are the only positions he can profile at long-term, that’s going to put a lot of pressure on Ortíz’s bat. Between that and the vast distance between the Arizona Complex League and the majors, it’s hard to shove him way up the list right now. But he’s very talented and getting results, and it’s not hard to see how Ortíz could have Milone-like production in Midland when he’s 23. Like Pérez, he’s an obvious candidate to rise up prospect lists as he rises up the system in his early twenties.
44.) Jacob Watters, RHSP
How Acquired: Drafted (Round 4, 2022)
Current Team: Lansing
2022 Midseason Rank: N/A
2023 Midseason Rank: 39
A couple of weeks ago, Watters was pretty firmly off the top 50 (though still clearly in the honorable mentions). Over a year-plus in Lansing, the big, physical righthander just hadn’t shown much feel for pitching. The 2022 fourth-rounder certainly had the stuff he was advertised to have–he holds 93-96 mph velocity as a starter and has brushed 99 once this year, his curve has always had otherworldly velocity for a pitch with giant 12-6 snap, and his splitter has good movement and strong velocity separation from the fastball. And it wasn’t like Watters just walked everyone–he’s never been close to a walk per inning or anything. It was more that he just never really seemed in command on the mound, with his stiff delivery and the big movement on his two-seamer, curve, and splitter leaving a consistent impression of a pitcher who was struggling to really tame the game. Sometimes he’d get more outs because he was a bit more around the zone or hitters hit the ball at the defenders, and sometimes he’d fall behind more frequently and get less lucky with balls in play, but whatever the box score results turned out to be, it almost never felt like he really imposed his will on the opposition, which isn’t a good sign for a pitcher with such impressive stuff. Watters’ four-seamer and two-seamer didn’t miss bats, and the curve and splitter went for strikes at very low rates, so he was quite predictable, particularly if he fell behind in counts. Since so much of his trouble stemmed from his mechanical stiffness, I wasn’t particularly optimistic a bullpen move–though obvious–would really do all that much to alleviate Watters’ issues.
But now I’ve seen Watters impose his will, so he’s finally gotten off the proverbial mat in pro ball. He threw back-to-back walkless, scoreless outings against Peoria and Dayton over the past two weeks, getting 27 outs on–get this–just 83 pitches. He seems to have made a subtle mechanical adjustment with his stride down the mound that’s allowed him to sync his upper and lower halves better and thus get on a more consistent and looser-looking line to the plate. Not coincidentally, all of his metrics have moved in a more positive direction–all of a sudden, the fastballs are missing bats, the curve is dropping in for a ton of called strikes, and the splitter is playing a heightened and very effective role in his arsenal. He’s had huge groundball rates his whole career because of how much everything but the four-seamer sinks, so now that he’s throwing more consistent quality strikes and everything is missing bats, there’s a chance for Watters to put together a pretty dynamic all-around statistical profile that would meet the oft-stunning visual quality of his stuff.
Or at least, that’ll be true if Watters’ improvements stick. Even if they do, he’s not suddenly become Greg Maddux out there; he’ll likely have to get by with 40-grade command, which would still leave him with a large chance of needing to move to the bullpen. But now that he’s made this step forward after a year-plus of having the same struggles, even if that step forward proves to be a fitful one for the moment, the fact that it happened at all cracks the down-the-line impact power relief possibilities (and some starting ones) a lot more wide open than they seemed before. I still think Watters could ultimately end up with a shorter, harder breaking ball like a a cutter or something as part of his arsenal that he can find the zone with more consistently than the curve/splitter combo, seeing as there aren’t many big-league pitchers who throw neither a cutter nor a slider, so that could be a lever the A’s could pull if Watters runs into further command roadblocks later on.
Overall, this particular placement of Watters captures an evaluation in flux. He’s zoomed back onto the list because of his recent adjustment and performance, and if that holds, he’ll be up in top 30 territory next month. If it doesn’t, he’ll still stick around this range for awhile, because now he’s flashed his potential in a more actualized way than he ever had before, and that’s worth something.
43.) Cole Conn, C
How Acquired: Drafted (Round 12, 2023)
Current Team: Lansing
2022 Midseason Rank: N/A
2023 Midseason Rank: N/A
Conn was picked a round before Johnston last year and joins him in ascending from relative obscurity post-draft into a clearly notable place in the organizational picture less than a year later. The switch-hitting former UIC Flame posted a .431 OBP in Stockton and got a quick promotion to Lansing, where he’s hung in okay in his first week-plus in the Midwest League, and he’s impressed across the board overall in 2024.
The headline element of Conn’s profile is his defense. He’s small for a catcher at 6’0” and probably around 185 pounds, but he’s very mobile in the one-knee style and has solid framing instincts. He also has the most effective arm among catchers in the system right now–not only did he catch 31% of basestealers in Stockton, he also consistently threw such lasers down to second base that runners who looked headed for easy swipes–either because of great jumps or because Conn had to catch the pitch in a position that made throwing very difficult–would only just barely sneak in ahead of the tag.
Offensively, Conn works counts and has a gap-oriented line-drive approach, though he’s not shy about trying to turn on pitches and can surprise by occasionally really laying into mistakes and backspinning them. He also runs much better than most catchers–though it’s possible he’ll bulk up to a more typical catching build as he ages–and might be a good enough athlete to do some outlier utility work. I wouldn’t be shocked if he could play a competent second base if he got enough reps there, in addition to all the corner positions–not that that should be a developmental priority here, but it makes Conn have more potential roster fits than a typical catching prospect if it comes to that.
That all puts Conn’s skillset as strikingly similar to McGuire’s. Conn has the advantage of switch-hitting, he has more defensive upside and arm strength, and he gets to more of his power than McGuire does, but McGuire has the superior approach and contact ability, as well as perhaps a touch more raw power. McGuire has the higher floor because of his uncanny fundamental soundness and proximity to the majors, but as Conn has managed to clear some fences over the past month, including two in his first week-plus in Lansing (one from each side!), he’s starting to establish a higher ceiling.
Conn’s defense will keep him on the map for quite some time, and his balanced offensive skillset is intriguing–there’s real upside here, particularly if he can keep bringing his power into games. The question is going to be more about what else he can do to develop, since he’s a gamer who already maximizes so much of what he can do out there. There is a bit of inconsistency in his approach and feel for contact, as he’s run an in-zone contact rate below 80% this year, lower than you’d like to see for a contact-first player who’s making judicious swing decisions; he will swing through middle-middle pitches in particular at a bit of an eyebrow-raising rate. Still, catching offense famously can develop late, and Conn is just 22 and still early in his pro journey. If he continues to push that contact rate upward as he advances, some pretty interesting career path possibilities will come into focus.
42.) James González, LHSP
How Acquired: International amateur free agent (2019, Panama)
Current Team: Midland
2022 Midseason Rank: Unranked
2023 Midseason Rank: Unranked (HM)
González led the A’s organization in strikeouts last year, mostly repeating Stockton, and he just needed ten dominant High-A outings to move up to Midland and is now the youngest member of the RockHounds rotation. Along the way, he’s continued to get in better physical shape, has improved his extension down the mound, found a bit of an extra gear velocity-wise, and has added a solid hard cutter to go with his typical balanced fastball-curve-changeup mix, and his overall maturation as a pitcher pushes him onto the list for the first time now.
González’s statistical excellence has often been defined more by everything working well than one particular element of his arsenal or approach standing out. His four-seam fastball comes in in the low 90s, occasionally pushing into the 94-95 area now, and he can get swinging strikes with it at the top of the zone. It helps set up his hard curveball, which gets good vertical snap and can flummox both lefties and righties when he locates it, landing for a lot of called strikes. González’s most-effective pitch has typically been his low-80s changeup, which is interesting because the pitch doesn’t have big movement and he’s always struggled to throw it from the same arm slot as the fastball and curve, dropping down to a three-quarter release. Really, what sells the pitch is his strong arm speed and somewhat deceptive delivery, combined with solid velocity separation. The cutter looks like a meaningful addition to the arsenal, can also play some to both lefties and righties, and opens up more east-west stylistic options, since all of González’s other pitches move in quite vertical orientations.
That arsenal, combined with González’s obvious patterning savvy–he really knows how to sequence in a way that keeps opponents off balance–paints the picture of quite a complete pitcher, but González has always been pretty rough around the edges from a pitchability standpoint, particularly in terms of repeating his arm slot (most notably with the changeup as mentioned above, but it’s not just that). Though his arsenal is undoubtedly a complete one, it also doesn’t include obvious plus pitches that give him a ton of room for error on the command front, so he’s going to have to keep proving himself in terms of both command and deception in the upper minors if he’s going to profile as a big league starter. Already, Texas League hitters have proven significantly more of a challenge for him to dominate than A-ball opponents, though he did have his first real dominant outing at that level on Friday.
I’ve long thought González’s most likely path to big league staying power is to go to the bullpen, because if he can sit in the mid-90s and hitters only get to see him once, it’s a lot easier to see how his arsenal would be impactful. Still, he’s got the four pitches and savvy, and he’s had a ton of recent success starting, so it makes sense for the A’s to have him in a starting role until he hits a wall. He’s one more subtle step forward from making a rotation destination a lot more likely, but for now, his steady progress has put González on the prospect map. That’s a developmental win, particularly for an organization that has historically really struggled to get their international signees to Double-A with any time to spare.
41.) Franck De La Rosa, RHSP
How Acquired: International amateur free agent (2019, Dominican Republic)
Current Team: Stockton (7-day IL)
2022 Midseason Rank: N/A
2023 Midseason Rank: 44
It’s been an up-and-down season as a tandem starter in Stockton for De La Rosa, and it hasn’t been helped by his recent landing on the injured list. Having just turned 24, he’s part of the demographic of players still most affected by the lost 2020 season: pitchers who signed as teenagers before 2020 and missed an additional season with injury. As such, De La Rosa is still shy of 70 pro innings, and the A’s moved him to starting this year likely in an attempt to make up for lost time.
Amidst the low innings count and De La Rosa’s career near-6 ERA, there’s a ton of electricity here. The big Dominican sat 97-99 last year as a reliever and 94-97 this year as a starter, and De La Rosa’s slightly deceptive but fairly athletic delivery aids him in bullying the fastball past hitters. His hard slider arrives in the upper-80s but has curve-like depth and has been a wipeout swing-and-miss offering. Anyone with those two pitches is going to have intriguing upside forever, and though he’s raw for his age due to lack of reps, De La Rosa has some feel for his mechanics and has outings where he locks in and is unhittable.
As his command and changeup remain quite crude and he’s a free agent after next season, De La Rosa will almost certainly end up back in the bullpen sooner rather than later–hopefully the injury isn’t anything serious–but once there, he’s a strong candidate to have a Pedro Santos-like rise, where he moves from Stockton to Las Vegas in a year or less. The command will be a question for a while yet, but De La Rosa has the athleticism to make further gains there as he amasses more on-mound experience. Chances are fairly high that he’s the next big upper-90s A’s-system flamethrower to get to Midland and then hit minor league free agency, like Wandisson Charles and Jorge Juan before him, but like those guys, De La Rosa will have every chance in the A’s system and beyond to make his talents shine.